Climate Solutions and Analysis

Delusions at their finest. From Judy Curry, a frequent testifier to a generally scientifically illiterate and ideological U.S Congress:

However, the main point is that this group is rapidly self-correcting – the self-correcting function in the skeptical technical blogosphere seems to be more effective (and certainly faster) than for establishment climate science.

Curry includes a few non skeptics in her group. But she seems to be relying on the fact that some of the most ludicrous claims of skeptics are contradicted by other skeptics  (as part of the process of believing they are engaging in objective, non results oriented, non advocacy, science), as evidence for her belief sealing assertion that skeptics are “self correcting.”

This sort of phenomenon also goes on at the WattsUpWithThat website that is heavily referenced in the above linked piece: A place where hard core “skeptics,” regardless of the most relevant facts, yet under fervently believed auspices of them, consistently advocate that climate change is either a hoax or trivial.

WUWT is a site that, along with a random smattering of other erroneous information sites, comes up on the first page of most google climate change related searches, and which has an astoundingly high and greatly underestimated influence on broad public perception of an issue that, otherwise, at its core at least is a pretty simple no brainer:

Namely, we rapidly and suddenly changed our earth’s insulation layer to what are geologically unheard of levels relative to the otherwise exceedingly long course of mankind’s evolutionary transition into a species.

And while conditions on earth – e.g, ocean temps, ice sheets and overall albedo – also interact with and affect that insulation layer and help drive longer term climate, the two main direct drivers of long term climate as well as those just referenced earth systems that in the long run also help stabilize and drive climate, are the sun (incoming energy); and earth’s atmosphere – its long term insulation – or, simply put, the recapture of otherwise escaping energy.

So of course climate likely has to change, possibly in (to us) geologically profound ways. And our sudden geologically relevant change to the atmosphere’s long term, and accumulating, recapture of energy presents an enormous risk range of what to us may seem “slow,” but would in fact be geologically very rapid and (again, to us), potentially severe lurches or changes that are probably still hard to fully comprehend or predict.

At the so called “most viewed site on climate science in the world,” the most hard core “skeptics” sometimes wax on about how they are debating and looking at things “objectively” in order to arrive at the best science, while in fact everything under the sun is tried out in order to most effectively advocate for this desired position.

This includes a rigorous assessment of claims to find those that can be sufficiently believed and self perpetuating in order to continue said advocacy and belief under believed guise of the “better science.”

Thus, when commenters therein suggest the idea that carbon dioxide levels have increased is wrong, or the accepted knowledge that the increase is due to anthropogenic activities is  in fact wrong, many “skeptics” argue against this. For, they are, after all, “reasonable” and “objective.” (And the ability to recognize that atmospheric carbon dioxide has risen due to clear and specific anthropogenic processes, naturally, “proves that.”)

It is easy to confuse the hell out of the climate change issue, as Judy Curry’s site, along with WUWT and a near endless host of others – and with eloquent language and rhetoric almost always inversely related to the underlying accuracy of what she is really communicating – aptly shows.

And it is so easy to continue to pick apart almost anything under the sun (no pun intended) on a potentially complex issue such as “climate change,”almost all of which misrepresents the issue, gets it wrong, or wildly, almost radically, cherry picks and simply omits anything which fundamentally conflicts with pre determined conclusions drawn and assertions made, that why undermine credibility with what are obviously wacky claims even to the not very scientific?

Even for some, going to the level of simply calling NOAA and NASA outright frauds – while some of the most hard core (and usually not very scientific) Tea Party deniers literally believe this as a way to stay with their beliefs -loses credibility.

That is why in the above post Paul Homewood is looked upon as “reasonable,” and Steven Goddard, for making some of the same ultimate claims about “fraudulent” NASA, not as much, since Homewood “shows” the claims.

As Curry eloquently argues:

..Whereas Homewood more carefully documented the actual problem with the data set.

What’s interesting is that months later  later, Homewood struck again. He found some temperature stations in South America (or somewhere) that had been recalibrated. He took out the recalibrations and the temperature rise for the region wasn’t as large.

He did this for a few other carefully selected geographical areas as well.

This set off an even bigger tempest among the real “skeptic” blogosphere, as well as many mainstream news sources either ideologically predisposed to the claim that climate change is all but a bunch of hooey (especially Rupert Murdoch’s ideologically driven empire, and especially Fox New there); confused about the issue; or confused about what actual “balance” in reporting is – thinking it means just parrot what everybody says without the context of relevant facts or why they’re relevant, and sort of split the difference overall. (And thus, on complicated issues, create the ability of any group to change any truth by simply claiming it vociferously and consistently enough, and with enough seemingly logical made up rhetoric in support.)

Homewood’s claims – dismissed too quickly by many who “know” climate change is a big problem and who often assume “everybody else knows it too” and aren’t much influenced by the huge cacaphony of misleading and confused information on a topic that is often poorly understood – helped to further add to the confusion and skepticism on the topic of climate change and man’s inadvertent impact on our long term climate and future climate risk range; even as ice sheets continue to melt, and the ocean gets hotter, precipitation patterns slowly become more generally intense and variable, and long term temperatures slowly continue to rise.

The problem with Homewood’s claim and the ensuing worldwide cacophony that ensued is:  The temperature recalibrations weren’t represented as “mistakes,” nor the “find” by Homewood as part of the natural process of science that, aside from observation, esssentially defines it – namely, ongoing learning, adjustment, mistake, correcting, adjustment, refinement, etc.

Instead, they were represented as a “fraud.” Which is itself actually a fraud. (If a fraud can be perpetrated under guise of belief, since hard core skeptics actually believe they are being objective; and in finding ways that help to advocate their desired conclusions, self seal in their belief of those conclusions as well as their objectivity – a classic example of which is the ludicrous post by Curry linked to at the top, and the point herein.)

Temperature station recalibration is incontrovertibly considered good science. If some stations were recalibrated incorrectly, then that’s the mistake, and, as part of the process of science, it should be adjusted, corrected, or improved.

Yet the hard core “skeptic” blogosphere, picked up by much of the mainstream media, and represented basic science – routine recalibrations – to the world, as fraud.

That’s blind zealotry.

But it got worse. Homewood, as well as much of this great “self correcting skeptic community” to which Curry self convincingly refers, also neglected to mention in their constant representations that this “tampered data” (aka routine recalibrations), were not only routine, but also routinely done in both directions – upward and downward. The fact that temperature data was “changed downward” – further presenting the false impression of on its face fraud – was simply omitted as if it didn’t exist, leaving an incredibly false impression.

In essence, some of this “self correcting” skeptic community, led by Homewood, Curry’s Golden Boy for objectivity, apparently – and with zero evidence in support but for desire – broadly and repeatedly represented that routine recalibrations were tampering to raise temperatures. And did so by presenting the case to the world as if temperature station data was never supposed to be changed.

This was done when in fact a) it is considered bad science to simply refuse to recalibrate raw data – and b) such “changes” or recalibration (mostly due to lesser maintained weather gauges) were also and just about as exhaustively done in the downward direction as well.

If it was tampering, or there was credible evidence of it (some disgruntled scientist who thinks the temperature data set isn’t showing the problem and thus pulls a fast one on 100,000 plus climate, atmospheric or geo physical or paleo physical scientists, and the world round the globe, as observational indices over the years world wide, just happen to cooperate by sheer coincidence), then the non fraudulent way to allege such would be to first and foremost represent: 1) that recalibrations are part of science; not implicitly represent that raw data is what is used, so that if the raw data is “changed” it is a fraud; and 2) that the recalibrations or (“fraudulent”) changes were done upward and downward, not just that the changes were done upward alone.

And lastly, though of less import, had no recalibrations been done at all, the possibly erroneous(?) or, in the eyes of skeptics, “fraudulent” total global warming measurements would in total not even be any lower.

So the ultimate conclusion of the three part “scandal” fraud – 1) NOAA fraudulently tampered with data as opposed to recalibrated data (and, if so, with support still largely lacking, but if with support it’s simply part of the scientific process – erred on some of its recalibrations; 2) The “changed data” (again, rather than simply what it is, recalibrated raw data) was only done in an upward direction; and 3) In order to purposefully create the false appearance of a “warming world” – was also, incredibly, false.

These representations were also not just made in non stop rhetoric by politicians, comments, and an endless line of highly frequented blog sites, but in mainstream editorials and articles as well. (Most notably here, where routine recalibrations cherry picked in only the upward direction and represented as something entirely different, were in a major newspaper labeled “The Science Scandal of the Century,” in a bit of irony for the ages.)

An irony that Judy Curry, to perpetuate her own beliefs, seems completely immune to. The same Judy Curry who not long before this still largely unrecognized scandal scandal, self sealingly writes of the self correcting “skeptic” community on this issue, as opposed to the basic process of science, which she finds pales in comparison.

And still without yet coming up with a single shred of evidence, support – apart from rhetoric, hope, religious belief that a chosen God sets aside the basics laws of physics he himself created in order to keep mankind from inadvertently damaging his own interests and too radically altering the Goldilocks climate we and the species we rely upon evolved under, or misrepresentations and wild cherry picking of actual climate science itself – as to how the earth’s long term insulation layer could, as a clear result of specific anthropogenic activities, and almost breathtakingly fast, rise to levels that in Global Warming Potential Equivalent (GWPe) the earth now hasn’t seen in millions of years, and somenow not impact the climate.

While of course also cherry picking to extremes (consistently taking the far end of the far end of all estimates and leaving out other relevant facts entirely, including on Judy Curry’s far too influential blog), in order to claim that the earth isn’t really changing,  or ascribe it to some mathematically fantastic coincidence that in this particular 100 year period, increasing and long term consistent signs of general changes exactly in the direction that would be expected, just “happen” to be by some bizarre coincidence.

For climate science can not be literally proven until well after the fact. (If, technically, even then.)

And since skeptics don’t want to accept it for a host of reasons and, often, broad (and often incorrect) presumptions, economic and otherwise, and have turned skepticism into an avenue for advocating against the general climate change “theory” in any seemingly plausible way possible (hence Curry’s piece above, and the delusion of the “self correcting” mechanism), the ironically misnamed”skepticism” perspective and its proponents can in fact continue to cling to that belief until well after the fact, and decades after the changes that represent what many are concerned about, are inextricably set in motion, or have already come to pass.

THE LATE pseudo climate change denialist Michael Crichton – great author, awful objective scientist – in one sense started it off:

Crichton didn’t just write an influential best seller with extremely bad – but appealing – rhetoric, misrepresentation, and false logic. He greatly influenced presidents with it.

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To Crichton and many others, his “Climate of Fear” best seller wasn’t “pure porn for climate deniers,” but apparent “logic,” based on his “extensive research” of climate change.

And Crichton’s belief driven interpretation approach – the very opposite of what real science is – led him to the novelish conclusion that climate scientists were not just wrong, but dolty hoax perpetrating frauds or simple idiots; with environmentalists, of course, evil wrongdoers.

This, he established, by a piece so manipulative, and so bad….

…So maniuplative, and so bad…it captivated, among many people, the former President of the United States.

A president who, although he almost never met with climate scientists, nevertheless met with Crichton for an hour to discuss climate change, specifically.

And who, along with many others, moved backward on the issue, while the avalanche of misunderstanding and rhetoric on it – rhetoric that sounds good but is not only egregiously wrong but, even more tellingly, fundamentally misconstrues what the issue even is, simultaneously came into full swing.

And still continues, to this day. Even, in some ways, increasing, and dominating much of the increasingly far right leaning GOP, a good portion of the Internet, and even many ostensibly objective news sources.

At the same time, the great bulk of the U.S. and other Western countries and leading Internet media, for instance, still don’t assess the actual claims of the so called, ironically named, and self reinforcing belief led “skepticism” movement; let alone do so in the context of the actual relevant facts on climate change, nor why, more importantly, the relevant facts are what they are.

The rare – let alone long – Crichton climate change meeting with the U.S President and his insiders wasn’t the only direct influence of the book. The fiction in fact received widespread coverage:

Unfortunately, very little of it placed its outlandish claims and illogical but still today erroneously but almost religiously used belief that because the precise impact of an enormous ongoing geological energy dump  can’t be exactly predicted, therefore the fact that major atmospheric energy alteration is in fact changing climate can’t be very significant, into any type of accurate context whatsoever.

On the other end of the spectrum, in fact, the AEI, which numbered a remarkably high twenty alumni among just the Bush Administration itself, even gave Crichton its keynote spot: in a day, of all things – and in a bastardization of the term that would have made Orwell proud (although one, sadly, that was self believed, as all most good Orwellian doublespeak ultimately becomes) – devoted to”Science Policy in the 21st Century.”

Thus at the same time, in its quest for false balance and fear of the far right jumping up and down and calling it even more names, and similarly beguiled by the belief driven rhetoric and fervent self reinforcing belief driven and veiled manipulation in Crichton’s novel itself, and elsewhere similarly passed off as science, most of the media wouldn’t even objectively assess the book in relation to the relevant facts, wasn’t being given the tools to do so, or some combination of the two.

Crichton meanwhile, later showing how “reasonable” he of course was (arguably slightly fooling some otherwise highly laudable climate change reporters, and perpetuating enormous myths of presumption that moving to smarter energy and agricultural practices is not only not growth but some sort of huge cost – here in Crichton’s own words, and borrowing from Bjorn Lomborg – covered here – 558 trillion dollars), also liked to say that of course the phenomenon of climate change is real, it’s just that the earth is “isn’t that sensitive.”

This is a critical point – though rarely covered – because it’s at the heart of much of the misunderstanding, and misinformation that helps feed, support and even increase the self righteous furor and zeal of the ongoing onslaught of appealing sounding climate change isn’t a big deal rhetoric. (Rhetoric that unfortunately, on the outside, many of those concerned about climate change downplay far too much, as if those hundreds of millions that buy it – many influential, and representing even nearly a majority of our U.S Congress today – can’t or don’t actually believe it, failing therein to see the constant patterns – and poor framing – that reinforce widespread belief and self reinforcing ideology, on a complex unprovable futuristic long term global energy pattern integrated issue.)

If the earth  “isn’t that sensitive,” why, then climate change can’t be much of a problem. I.e, because,. it…just…isn’t “that sensitive.”

Since it’s in the future, and commingled with the fact that “climate” exists regardless of our actions  (our actions just help impact it),  the issue – since the earth “isn’t that sensitive” anyway – is then easy to trivialize.

This is something which those who don’t see climate change as trivial continue to often fail to recognize, and thus as a result often frame communications in a sort of either presumptive, conclusionary, evilly motivated, or blaming sort of way that only furthers the needless polar divide over not what to do about the issue, but the very reality of its potent geologic existence and attendant widspread powerful and uncertain long term risk range to the conditions that support our world in the first place.

But the fact is, devoid of specific context and application to the precise atmospheric alteration taking place, as well as the uncertain broad range of ongoing energy risk and effects – something still not being well grasped or, but for “worry,” dispassionately articulated  – the phrase “isn’t that sensitive” is not only highly misleading, it’s appealing sounding, ultimately scientifically meaningless, bunk: The sophisticated, slightly veiled version of saying gravity won’t make you fall off a skyscraper when you jump because “it’s just that the pull isn’t that sensitive.”

Which, in turn, and unlike the more complex phenomenon of impact to an already existent and random climate through major long term geophysical energy input changes – is only obvious because we can all independently see and unambiguously feel gravity at work.

While climate change, on the other hand, once again, is a complex global phenomenon of greatly increased net energy impact upon an already open, global, and highly variable system; impossible to fully isolate out over decades, let alone at the moment and in a specific location so that we could somenow know exactly what is going to happen and when, as “skeptics” seem to continually if illogically insist we need to be able to do in order for the phenomenon of major potential impact risk to even be real in the first place.

The nice sounding but meaningless claim is also similar in logic – appealing but fundamentally incorrect – to the idea that climate change can’t be a significant phenomenon because models (though overall they are reasonably accurate, and far, far more so than the mere randomness that would have to be the case if climate change were bunk), can’t tell us exactly what will happen and when.

Which argument, lost in all of the rhetoric, relies upon the ludicrous implication that the concept of “risk” itself (which by definition implies uncertainty) ceases to exist, when we simply don’t want it to.

Though not nearly as obvious, it would be as if counter terrorism experts prior to 2001 warned that flying airplanes into skyscrapers might topple them, but those who didn’t want to believe it convinced themselves that it was unlikely for the jetliners to pose significant risk to skyscrapers merely because without running several tests (which for climate change would require dozens of sister earths and several half century plus periods to test out various atmospheric level changes and account for variance) – and possibly even with doing so – exactly what would happen could not be precisely predicted in advance.

This is exactly what is happening with respect to the climate change issue, and the media is simply not covering it.

The earth is now an ongoing climatic experiment. Of course suddenly changing earth’s basic long term insulation layer impacts climate – it can’t not. And it poses risk of fairly significant shifting, in what would be to us a reasonably long, but in geological terms very quick – time frame (Here’s one such mechanism that gets far too little attention, as we over focus on air temperatures alone, which only tell the most visible, variable, and right now least important part of the story.)

But lack of acceptance of this on the one hand, and poor framing, and blaming, and villainizing, and presumption, on the other, help facilitate this ongoing pattern of arguments that sound great, but, literally, have nothing to do with the issue.

For instance, here’s yet another: Anthropogenic climate change isn’t real because “climate changes”: Probably uttered in no less than a hundred thousand “articles” on the subject, and millions of comments, not to mention multiple “news” channels.

Of course climate changes. (Though frankly the chance of it changing over any single random 100 year period, to the degree it has over the past 100 year period – let alone in exactly the direction climate scientits would expect as a result of our atmospheric alteration, are exceedingly low – and even far lower still when the more significant drivers of future change – major ice cap, ice sheet and ocean changes, are taken into account.)

But that argument is about as relevant as saying that break failure induced car accident risk increase isn’t real because, “car accidents happen.”

In  other words, climate change isn’t suddenly recognized because, “Wow, climate is changing, any ideas why?” with then a mad scramble to come up with explanations. Climate change is the more fundamental issue of major long term atmospheric insulative alteration, with the expectation of ongoing, increasing, cumulative effect upon both air temperatures, and more importantly the basis stases systems that help stablize, modulate and drive, earth’s climate (and which represent exactly what, corroboratively, we are seeing).

It’s this way with every single one of the skeptic “arguments.” I.e., a logical sounding tautology once again, that either fundamentally misconstrues the basic issue, or has nothing to do with it.

For instance, here’s yet another: climate change isn’t real becaue “scientists have been wrong before.” (Hence, GOP candidate and far right ideologue Ted Cruz, in an irony that knows few bounds, has likened himself and other climate change “skeptics,” to Galileo.)

But the fact that scientists have been wrong before isn’t relevant to the issue of atmospheric change, or any specific issue, for that matter. What is relevant are the reasons why.

In this case, the relevant reasons, if any, why the overwhelming majority of climate scientists most basic and at this point not even controvertible assessment of the issue, are in this particular case, wrong, and man is not significantly impacting our own climate or presenting a relevant risk range of potentially broad scale future and unpredictable shifting and change.

And, tellingly, all of the reasons offered as to “why” this is reportedly so (i.e, the “basic” science is wrong while coincidentally, the ideologue and often anti science politicians are, of course, right), are not only egregiously wrong, but terribly misconstrue the basic issue itself, so they are not even really addressing the issue, but believe that they are.

When the arguments given to show that “accepted” or widespread scientific knowledge is wrong, have to get the issue itself egregiously wrong in order to do so, it greatly strengthens, not weakens, the accepted knowledge.

(Occassionally accepted knowledge is generally correct, and the accepted knowledge on climate change is still very very generic and basic; and for the most part on this issue only reluctantly arrived at after long term conservative examination given its implications, and overall has underestimated the issue if anything, but of course skeptics have cherry picked what amount to microscopic slivers of the entire picture and amalgam of statements and assessments, to convey the very opposite illusion and belief.)

And this reality – that the arguments as to why the idea of relevant anthropogenic climate change impact and risk is misplaced are not only wrong themselves, but have to continually misconstrue the basic issue itself in order to self support – illustrates that the non acceptance of the basic fact – mankind is changing our climate, likely doing so in a way that poses an extremely counter productive risk range of possible radical (for us) climatic shifts as earth’s net energy balance continues to grow and its oceans and ice sheets accumulate more and more heat energy, changing the fundamental stases systems that both generally stabilize as well as ultimately help drive our climate – comes from a desire that becomes reinforced by a kind of self reinforcing advocacy, rather than the objective assessment of which such advocacy continually self convinces.

And, critical as it is to the issue and – as we continue to respond illogically to it, has so been for years and years – this as well has simply not been sufficiently shown.

And Crichton’s remarkably manipulative, but likely earnestly written novel – a novel that changed presidential perception and helped stall common sense climate change assessment and redress, and in a broader way still does today – is a perfect example; as it gets nearly everything relevant, wrong. (And wrong is a nice word, since the novel’s manipulation of the relevant issue, relative to what is and isn’t actually relevant, is astounding.)

As is, similarly, the more fundamental premise that drove Crichton’s continued dismissal of climate change, along with that of hundreds of millions of other concerned citizens: Namely, the similarly nice sounding idea that, well, climate change really isn’t a big deal, because, shrug, “earth’s not that sensitive.”

This is also, once again, a nice comforting jingle of a phrase that creates the false patina of relevant logic, i.e, once again sounds great, but is meaningless. And is a prhase which, more relevantly, leads to the corrollary, and even more influential idea of the”self regulating,” or “self correcting” mechanism idea.

Climate change? Yawn, snooze: No big deal, because, the earth is “not that sensitive,” and, naturally, is also”self regulating.”Again, a wonderful jingle of a phrase that creates the false patina of relevant logic.

Again, and most tellingly of all  on the issue, these are concepts that sound nice; help reinforce what we want to believe, and have in some ways literally helped (erroneously) reshape our perceptions away from what the bulk of professional climate, atmospheric and geologic scientists professionally studying this issue have been increasingly saying for years. But that literally have as much relevancy to the actual underlying issue as the color of your neighbor’s favorite shirt.

The idea is that the earth is ‘self correcting,” as if it’s not a product of the input of energy and physics upon it that in turn supports life, but some sort of independent organism with an end design similar to man himself – a large ball shaped organism hurtling through space designed to support a specific climate rather than just express a climate through the input of the sun, the ball’s rotation, and its insulation layer, etc, and of course not just any climate but one that’s also most preferable to mankind, specifically.

Similarly, famous columnist and long time influential news commentator Charles Krauthammer, who in the past has been to climate change knowledge as a blind person is to sight, wrote an oped arguing why climate change wasn’t a big deal, as a “science friend” explained to him. (It’s a good thing one of the U.S.’s most influential long time columnists has science friends so he can write column after column contradicting climate scientists who actually professionally study this issue, and who, very much unlike Krauthammer, actually have some small clue about it).

Why isn’t it a big deal? Because, as science expert Krauthammer informs the world, of “homeostasis.”

This is like a two year old contradicting practicing physicists. But in our “common sense” rhetoric and little check upon misinformation run amok age, it sounds great.

And it’s, once again, nice rhetoric. Except Krauthammer, as with almost all so called “skepticism” on this issue (but the very opposite of skepticism toward any claim that pretends to know more than climate scientists on the issue, so long as it contradicts climate scientists), is driven by the self reinforcing advocacy to fit “facts” into this desired conclusion. And not coincidentally, got the only two relevant things, backwards.

First, homeostasis in general means balance and a tendency to return toward it. Climate change is an issue precisely because of this: Increase earth’s net energy, and earth will over time respond until a new stases (or balance) is reached, representing the new net energy influx parameters.

The other mistake is even more egregious, and almost past the point of caricature. (Yet naturally the Washington Post published this monstrosity in the name of “false balance” and poor scientific understanding, as if it was simply “perspective.”)

That is, homeostasis most frequently and more specifically, refers to physiological processes: An organism or living body’s self correcting or attempted healing process mechanism, or tendency.

The earth is a ball of several basic elements, and ice. Essentially a ball of rock moving through space. Not a literal, physiological organism which evolved such a homoestasis mechanism since, the better the mechanism, the more likelihood of survival and thus the passing on of genes.

Also, even if earth were a biological self correcting mechanism (“Gaia” – ironic that in illogical but clearly ideology driven antagonism to even the most basic of non partisan objective environmental science Krauthammer would misappropriate the somewhat far fetched or at least more abstract than literal environmetalist concept of “mother earth,” and on top of that, actually make it literal), it would likely self correct by taking steps to lessen the impact of the species that is suddenly radically changing it. Not protect that species.

So the tendency towards balance – whether it be in any system – is that of climate change itself – the earth’s ongoing response to what is now a multi million year change in its long term molecular energy recapture, not a reason for climate change not to be real (which is inane). Or it exists in an organism – not the earth, as a complex physical but not physiological, system itself – and which the earth, at best, only serves as metaphor.

And which, even as semi literal metaphor, likely wouldn’t cause it self correct to “protect us.”

Nor, even more importantly, is there any known mechanism, or even the hint of such mechanism (besides, of course, rhetoric – which can create the hint, and even perceived reality of nearly anything), by which this “self correction to keep climate around what it was when mankind evolved the past couple of million years or less,” so it would stay smoothing sailing specifically for otherwise random said mankind, would happen.

But, naturally, this broader but equally meaningless idea of “self regulation” has become a fundamental foundation, both implicitly and explicitly, in the common discussion; substituting for meaningful and relevant analysis and assessment – while of course sounding just like it. And in most cases serving as yet another means to perpetuate a desired belief while simultaeously causing even wider and again further self reinforcing misunderstanding on the underlying topic.

But again, the idea of “self regulating” earth in response to an otherwise random change in ongoing inputed net energy to earth’s overall earth atmospheric system in any meaningful way for our specific needs and desires, presupposes the earth as some separate biological mechanism charged with overseeing life, rather than serving simply as home to it, and the literal earth organism itself thus not just supporting that life (plausible to some, at least in some sort of abstract metaphor), but specifically favoring human life, and self correcting for it.

This is a fantasy that, regardless, literally has no more support than the more obviously silly notion that alien fairy Godmothers come down each evening while we’re sleeping and re-adjust our earth’s energy balance – as well as set aside the laws of physics that normally guide it – for man’s specific benefit. Thus, making up for man’s mistakes and perpetuating our own ignorances as some sort of “good.”

In short, the problem with the “climate is self correction notion” is it starts from a false premise. That earth is not a ball of rock, but a literal living organism, and more importantly one that thrives and specifically and somehow very purposefully self corrects for the very same climatic conditions that would also right now and again purposefully and specifically favor us – wild coincidence of that aside.

Or, similarly, that it’s a physical system that doesn’t respond to the laws of energy and balance, but adjusts them somehow to achieve a different balance, despite a greatly changing total net input, that is once again, and specifically, similarly beneficial or “stabilizing,” for us.

From the ball of rock that is earth’s perspective, there’s nothing to correct. It’s a reflection of the total net energy input and its atmosphere and the conditions that creates, and physics.

Unfortunately our rhetoric far exceeds our logic, so, helped into full swing by Michael Crichton, among others, we say geologically meaningless things like “self correcting.” And thus find very human, “belief self regulating” ways, to cling to beliefs we’ve come to have, want to have, or have been convinced of.

And given its complex, overall uncertain, long term, and natural system intermingled nature, and a lot of rhetoric (and even well meaning but often counter productive conclusionary alarmism that seems to shriek and tell, rather than illuminate, show, and allow people to reach conclusions), climate change is a big candidate for exactly this phenomenon in more caricatured form even than usual. (And as such serves as a good  litmus for how we’re handling things we need to learn to more ojectivel and reasonably and tolerantly assess iun order to ultimately propser, or even survive, as a species, as we continue to gain in our ability to impact the fundamental physical constructs of the world in which we live – both purposefully, and inadvertently.)

So, in this case,  the key details that form the atmospheric alteration and net energy balance change to our earth atmosphere system are misinterpreted, then cast aside, because the earth is “not sensitive,” or is “self correcting.” Whereas, again, rhetoric aside, climate isn’t “self correcting” because there’s nothing to self correct.

The earth is a ball of a few basic elements that responds to the net energy input upon it and the laws of physics. And climate is ultimately an expression of that energy; not some sort of design by “Gaia” or otherwise, specifically for man’s benefit, no matter how nice the phrase sounds.

And we’re conducting a nice little open ended uncontrolled long term experiment, by geologically radically (at least from our perspective, and geologic time frame wise), altering the long term chemical composition of our atmosphere.

And instead of having a rational, objective conversation on it, have devolved into rhetoric as belief, under self believed guise of logic, while mamy others simply point fingers, presume the same knowledge or viewpoint, or ascribe “evil” motives to differing – even wrong, but very human, and understandable, as as of yet still not corrected or even sufficiently illuminated – views.

Here’s a great article in the Huffington post about growing food on Mars. At least it seems like a great article, as it appears interesting and informative.  Yes, we can live on Mars! (Threshold question is probably being able to first successfully continue to live and improve on earth, however.)

It’s a great article, that is, until we get to these two sentences.  Pay close attention:

The carbon dioxide in our atmosphere has increased from 0.03 to 0.04 percent over the past 100 years. We are only just beginning to study the impacts of this subtle change.

Sure, we could argue in a court of law that this isn’t technically a lie, or even “wrong,” since the rounded off math is accurate enough, and appropriate.

And if the “subtle” term is taken as a very poor synonym (in science terms, anyway), for “small,” and the statement considered devoid of context – and is therefore both meaningless, and misleading – the word itself, as it’s also subjective, isn’t a lie or even technically “wrong.”

But, putting aside the almost ridiculous “just beginning to study” phrase, these two sentences misconstrue and misrepresents the atmospheric CO2 change in just about as profound and fundamental way as possible.

A 33% change to earth’s fundamental insulation layer (what keeps the earth from being an essentially lifeless ball of frozen rock), that also suddenly occurs in what is a mere geologic instant – suddenly changing its long term insulation layer to levels not seen on earth in millions of years – scientifically, is anything but “subtle.”

Perhaps the article was written by a so called climate change “lukewarmer” who’s otherwise scientifically knowledgeable but by ideology or belief confused about the issue.

Or maybe it was penned by one who knows the issue to present a significant and relevant risk range of major climatic change over time, but simply isn’t considering or seeing the message the “subtle change” statement projects to those who don’t have the exact same understanding and thorough knowledge of the issue.

But either way, it serves as example of why there’s so much largely unrecognized confusion on this issue, and even more – and often fervently believed cherry picked misinformation led – misperception of it.

This is a misperception that runs rampant enough so that, while not widely reported or commented on, a majority of polls in Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States for example continue to show that barely half – and sometimes not even half – of the representative adult population acknowledges or believes that yes earth’s climate is changing and yes it’s doing so at least in relevant part by anthropogenic caused changes to our long term atmosphere’s chemical balance.

So let’s briefly address what is wrong with those two sentences:

Small has no meaning in science devoid of context. A relatively small amount of the retinol form of vitamin A will kill you.

The vitamin A forms found in plants are essentially converted into A in the body as needed, so you can eat as much of it as you like. But you can’t eat as much real Vitamin A, or retinol, as you like, since while it’s an esssential nutrient for survival, it’s also a toxin that is lethal in still relatively small amounts.

Obviously this is not subtle. Yet any suggestion it is would belie the relevant bio physiological factors, such as the basic relevant dose response curve of human physiology.

So it is on climate change.

And so when, for instance, we hear one time presidential candidate Michelle Bachmann preach out out on the Congressional floor how climate change can’t be relevant because the amount of carbon dioxide in the air is so “small,” humankind has essentially reached the epitome of pure scientific and logical ignorance – uttering a statement that on its own couldn’t be any more irrelevant to the actual issue, yet at the same time appears to have sufficient relevant meaning that from Bachmann, and still today on “real science” climate change websites, comment boards, and in political speech hundreds of thousands of times over, it’s repeated as if some sort of relevant climate change mitigating or refuting, “fact” and not the context meaningless statement that it is.

The bottom line is this:  If we’re outdoors and freezing, and a blanket is placed over us, we don’t think of the blanket, which occupies an infinitesmally small amount of the available air space over us, as “subtle.”

It’s not a perfect analogy to our atmospheric change, but it suffices: The long term greenhouse gas composition of the atmosphere is somewhat like earth’s blanket. Take it away, and essentially earth would then itself consist of a perpetually frozen and lifeless or all but lifeless ball hurtling through space.

And that “subtle” amount of long lived thermal radiation trapping gas, which then drives many of the conditions that help to make up our climate and in turn further affect earth’s net energy balance (such as evaporation of water and the ensuing if very short term but ongoing thermal recapture by those molecules, and the earth’s own reflectivity, or albedo, for example), scientifically is almost as non subtle as can be.

It’s the difference between a verdant earth teeeming with life, and one practically frozen solid, on which perhaps a few microbes might exist. Once again, not “subtle.”

The parts per million concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be seen as a “small” number, in absolute terms. But in science, small is very different from subtle. A small amount of coral snake venom is incredibly poisonous. Same thing. Not subtle.

But the real part of the problem with the reference is not the absolute number of molecules, but the reference to the change itself in those numbers as “subtle.”

“Subtle” conveys the idea that having any type of relevant effect as a resulf of this supposedly “subtle” change would almost be unexpected, and a surprise; when it’s not in the least. Change the earth’s long term atmospheric recapture of energy to a geologically significant degree, and the earth almost all but has to ultimately change, and likely over time at least, in the warming direction.

And that was what was first hypothesized many many decades ago. And it is what even outnumbered fear of ongoing ice age type cooling (made popular by an infamous Time magazine article in the 70s) in published paper form by over 5 to 1 over forty years ago, even after fifteen plus years of cooling and the fact that we were in an otherwise very slow earth cooling ice age, and before a veritable avalanche of additional (as well as empirically corroborating) information has been added.

An increase from 300 to 400 parts per million is an increase of 33%. A third is not even subtle in pure number terms, putting aside even the more important fact that pure number terms is not what’s relevant. Yet levels just in the industrial era have even risen more than a third, as have levels of other key greenhouse gases, with the next most important one rising far more. (Underestimated methane has more than doubled, for instance. And while it’s hard to assess levels going back millions of years, it, like carbon dioxide, essentially has suddenly shot straight up- and way up – from otherwise fairly measurable levels dating back trhough about 800,000 years or reliable ice core sampling. That’s very far from subtle as well, and part of the overall impact upon long term climate which the article references –  a very key part.)

But far more importantly, that “subtle” change is also a geologically sudden – abrupt – increase of ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide to levels, as best as we can tell, that have not been seen on earth in several million years.

That’s not very subtle either.

That is, in a mere moment of geologic time, our earth’s “blanket” has been changed on the order of millions of years.

That earth’s blanket, after the sun, is the most fundamental component for determining climate on earth.

Again, many of the other components that go into driving climate are ultimately directed by incoming energy – the sun – and energy recapture – the atmosphere’s insulation layer (earth’s “blanket”).

These in turn affect the amount of white snow and ice versus, say, darker tundra or forest, and thus the amount of sunlight hitting the earth that’s absorbed and re radiated as medium wavelength thermal radiation – recaptured by atmospheric greenhouse gases – or reflected as far shorter wavelength sunlight – and not recaptured.

And they affect the amount of evaporation and ultimately water vapor patterns in the atmosphere, thereby indirectly but ultimately driving the concentrations of the single most “important” thermal radiation recapturing gas at any moment – water vapor.

Water vapor is “important” in that there’s so much of it on average it’s normally responsible for the majority of all atmospheric thermal radiation absorption and re radiaion. But not in the sense of ultimately driving climate. This is because water vapor is part of what climate is; an expression of it. That is, it is a reflection of conditions that of course help shape what climate is on an ongoing basis, but is not an underlying driver.  Hence why water vapor is highly emphemeral and variable. An ongoing and constantly changing reflection of the climate that in turn becomes part of it because it also plays a key role in energy recapture.

And on climate change, this “climate reflection” of potentially changing water vapor conditions, for us anyway, is an extremely counter productive situation either way: Increased total water vapor only amplifies the overall heat energy recapturing effect and increases the intensity and number of larger precipitation events relative to what the earth’s systems evolved to support over the last few million years (as well, as, compounding the problem, what we built ourselves).

On the other hand, decreased total water vapor (the opposite of what has been so far observed) would only greatly intensify widespread regional changes and in many areas shift over to drought conditions even further – something that even with more precipitation (much wasted with larger intensity events), is already a major part of the relevant risk range of climate change to begin with.

That incoming energy from the sun, and the atmospheric recapture of thermal radiation energy versus reflected sunlight to begin with, which in turn depends in enormous part on earth’s albedo that shapes the amount of sunlight energy simply reflected versus absorbed and then thermally emitted and itself driven by total incoming and then atmospheric recaptured energy, as well as evaporation, in turn drive the energy balance of the earth’s ocean; which stabilizes, and, long term, perhaps drives or at least regulates or modulates earth’s climate as directly as anything else. But again is also a long term reflection of earth’s long term net energy.

And while many factors besides our own caused increased net emissions of greenhouse gases go into shaping those greenhouse gas levels, those factors, along with the oceans, ultimately, are still originally driven by a) the amount of total incoming energy (the sun) and b) the amount of energy that, given what is radiated back off of earth, is not subsequently lost to the atmosphere but is instead recaptured and thus retained to further increase earth’s total retained energy level.

And thus making a geologically sudden change to earth’s long term insulation layer, and the fundamental long term driver which in turn drives other conditions that help create climate and in turn shapes both short term variable and long term atmospheric insulative conditions that shape climate as well, the very polar opposite of “subtle.”*

Complex doesn’t equal subtle.

Saying climate change in one sense can be considered complex is fair.

Saying it is subtle mangles the subject, and further feeds rampant confusion and misperception on it – which, contrary to popular belief, is not simply rectified by telling people that “it’s a problem, so therefore believe  us,” or simply assumingi it to be so, and which on balance both only greatly worsen perception on the issue.

Additionally, viewing this issue devoid of context, and in the sense of absolute numbers and fractions, rather than in that context of what those numbers and fractions mean in terms of earth’s recent geologic history, is one of the more fundamental mistakes made in terms of assessing what climate change really is – the impact of long term atmospheric change upon earth’s long term climate, and a broad risk of largely incalculable effects and risks – and perhaps even more importantly, communicating on the subject.

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*This is, again, particularly the case when that sudden alteration is on the order of a several million year change, and occassioned in a mere geologic instant. And one that here, also, represents not a microscopically small fractional increase, but over 40% in just the last 150 to 200 years alone: And one that that is also accompanied by an increase of over 100% of the second most important (and underestimated) long term greenhouse gase; one that increased atmospheric warming of the earth’s historically colder surfaces, as well as it’s oceans, are in turn further increasing the long term levels of as well,with potentially if not likely wild ramifications.